Further deceleration of home-price rises in February: Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Canadian home prices in February were up 9.9% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. This acceleration from 12-month rises of 7.5% in January and 5.2% in December is attributable to the deflation that was in progress 12 months earlier. This base effect will continue through the results for April, the anniversary of the index bottom. The composite index has been on the rise since then and is now up 11.7% from the bottom. However, this gain is strongly influenced by Toronto, up 16.2% from April 2009, and Vancouver, up 14.1% from May 2009. In the four other markets surveyed, the rise from the respective troughs is less than 9%.


Month-over-month gains have recently decelerated considerably. The 0.2% February rise in the composite index was the smallest in the 10 months since it began climbing. In two of the six markets surveyed, prices were down from the month before.

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at http://www.housepriceindex.ca/.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.



All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault

Senior Economist

Economy and Strategy Group

National Bank Financial Group